Election Reader: Polls and Prognosticators

Posted on by Bill

Here is a series of tweets, excerpts, and links about where things stand and where they are heading:

A November Surprise: Trump And The Coming Red Wave

Don’t Get Suckered By The Establishment Psy-Op – Kurt Schlichter

The next few days will be a Cat 5 hurricane of mainstream media spin and Democrat bullSchiff designed to make you think that you’ve already lost this election. They want your morale shattered, your spirit broken, and you to put a lid on your participation in saving your country from leftist tyranny.

It’s all a lie.

It’s a psychological operation designed to keep you on the sidelines.

We got this.

All you need to do is vote.

Highly-Respected Poll Finds Trump Surging Ahead In Iowa – Daily Wire

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by the highly-respected Selzer & Co. of Des Moines between October 26-29, found that President Trump was leading former Vice President Joe Biden in Iowa by seven points, 48%-41%, a huge change, considering that in September, the same pollsters found the two candidates were tied at 47%.

Trump will be reelected — here is his path to an Electoral College victory – David Bossie

I believe the president will carry Texas, Indiana and all the other reliably red states for his first 163 electoral votes. In 2016, his road to victory ran through Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa. In 2020, this path remains intact, with the addition of Georgia and Arizona.

With repeat victories in these states, plus the electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional Districts, that brings President Trump’s tally to 260 electoral votes — just 10 votes shy of the magic number of 270.

Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes, Michigan has 16 and Wisconsin has 10. In this scenario, with the president sitting at 260 electoral votes, he needs to win just one of these three states to prevail.

Trump Ought to Be Winning in a Landslide

Trump Victory Will Kill Trust In Polling Industry Once And For All – Daily Wire

After the polling debacle of 2016, pollsters and the media who presented their findings as fact, were contrite, apologizing for their failures, and promising to fix their mistakes and implement new strategies so the same thing would never happen again. 

Actually, that’s not what happened. After taking a victory lap on the few states they correctly predicted, pollsters and the media washed their hands of any blame, claiming no one could have predicted a Trump victory—a surprising admission from the self-proclaimed arbiters of truth.

The polling industry has spent the last four years offering token promises of reforming their practices, rather than making substantive changes that will help them rebuild the trust of the American people. And that trust is waning, with the majority of Americans say they no longer believe political polling.  

This lack of trust is displayed further when you take into account what the American people think will happen on election day. In 2016, seven in 10 Americans said they expected Hillary Clinton to win, a number surely impacted by the polls they were seeing. In 2020, despite facing polls that show him with a larger lead than Clinton, just four in 10 Americans say they expect a Biden victory. 

Donald Trump is Going to Win – R. Emmett Tyrrell

Last week, I reported that 56% of people polled by Gallup in late September affirmed they were better off now, amid a painful pandemic, than they were four years ago, before Donald entered the White House. Another 79% of Americans said the economy was one of the most important issues for them in the race. And still another 56% of Americans said they expected a Trump victory. Forgive me for jumping to conclusions, but I, too, am expecting a Trump victory. Apparently, I am not alone. Last week, Michael McKenna, who writes for the Washington Times, was equally fetched by these 56-percenters. Maybe I will not be so lonely this election day.

Trump’s paths (plural!) to 270 electoral votes and victory – James L. Swofford

I recently argued that the toss-up states may be different from what media and pollsters present and what you think. Based my view from the 2016 results, I have the race at 231 electoral votes for President Trump, 183 electoral votes for Mr. Biden, and 124 electoral votes as toss-ups.   This implies that there are several paths to 270 electoral votes for a Trump victory. These many paths give us all many states to watch on Election Night.

What the Pollsters Could Be Missing — Purposely and Unpurposely – Rush Limbaugh

So they’re out basically predicting identical results as they did in 2016. The only difference is that it’s for Plugs instead of Hillary. So the question is: Is it possible for the pollsters to get it wrong again? Oh, yeah! It doesn’t seem likely, but is it possible? Hell, yes! And maybe not on purpose. Maybe it’s possible to get it wrong out of laziness or out of confidence that they’re not gonna be held accountable.

A barrage of election lawsuits threaten to delay final results for weeks or more – Just the News

With memories of Bush v. Gore in 2000 hanging over this Tuesday’s presidential election, a record number of mail-in ballots has resulted in a large number of court cases across the country in many battleground states. They range from local cases all the way up to the Supreme Court, and cover a wide range of issues. The rulings could determine the outcome of the election, as most of the focus is on whether or not ballots will be accepted after Election Day, and by how many days. Election rules differ from state to state, which is why some extensions are allowed while other states have clear rules on an Election Day deadline.

Sorry Liberals, But Trump Still Has a Very Clear Path to 270 – Elizabeth Vaughn

The left has tried to convince Americans for four years that President Trump is evil, unhinged, rude, crude and unfit for the presidency. They have tried to destroy him over and over again, but every time they think they’ve got him, he slips out of their grasp. This year, Democrats have weaponized the pandemic, the lockdowns and the deep economic recession against him. Yet, despite their perpetual pursuit, it remains entirely possible that he may win a second term. The President has a very clear and achievable path to victory.

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