Texas was once again at the mercy of wind generation – and it did not come through

Karla Florez – Austin News

Earlier this week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates the state’s power grid, came close to declaring “emergency conditions” after approximately 25% of its capacity was shut off to undergo maintenance.

“Alert: Due to a combination of high-gen outages typical in April & higher-than-forecasted demand caused by a stalled cold front over TX, ERCOT may enter emergency conditions,” an ERCOT Twitter post read on Tuesday. “We do not expect customer outages. Declaring an emergency would allow us to access additional resources.”

ERCOT urged Texas residents to conserve energy despite mild weather conditions and a typical outage-average in the area, leading some consumers to question the operator’s reliability. 

The statewide emergency alert was ultimately attributed to ERCOT missing its forecast load while intermittent generators (wind and solar) failed to perform to meet demand. This shortfall created an unfavorably tight reserve margin for the state’s electric grid. The occurrence sent out a wave of concern to consumers.

Earlier in the day, ERCOT reported a high number of generators offline for expected maintenance while noting “higher than forecasted demand” due to a stalled cold front. About a quarter of the area’s total capacity, equivalent to 32,000 megawatts (MW), were shut off, which were expected for summer preparation, according to ERCOT Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson told KXAN. 

“That’s not abnormal for this time of year,” Rickerson told KXAN. “This is the time of year when a lot of units are offline to get ready for higher temperatures. Without this maintenance, the summer period would have more issues.”

The majority of this week’s repairs were previously scheduled and not due to the February winter storm, according to ERCOT.

Tuesday’s peak-wind generation reached 17,000 MW at about 1 a.m. and dropped to approximately 5,000 MW in the late afternoon/early evening, according to the system conditions data.

In addition to lagging wind generation, The Texas Tribune reports that solar generation was also unavailable as it also failed to reach projected output to the grid due to cloudy weather.

“Wind today [was] running well below the day-ahead forecast for wind, and both are far below what wind was producing at 1 a.m. (Tuesday) this morning when nobody needed it,” Energy Alliance Policy Director Bill Peacock told the Austin News Tuesday night. “ERCOT missed its forecasted load because this cold front stalled and didn’t make it as far east and south as expected. After hitting its peak generation of almost 17,000 MW for the day at 1 a.m. – when it was not needed, wind generation dropped to about 5,000 MW – when we did need it,” Peacock further explained. “And even the 5,000 MW was 3,000 MW less than forecast. A lot of factors play a role in powering the Texas grid, and at times it is hard to pinpoint the exact cause.”

Peacock said the issues illustrate why the state can’t rely strictly on renewable energy sources such as wind or solar. 

“Weather is hard to predict,” Peacock continued. “Even in the short term – even a day ahead – weather is unpredictable. That is why Texas needs reliable generation from thermal sources such as nuclear, coal and natural gas. (Tuesday’s) tweet from ERCOT asking Texans to conserve electricity use is a perfect example of this. Because of a stalled cold front and some generation being offline for repairs, which is very common at this time of year, Texas was once again at the mercy of wind generation – and it did not come through.” 

He also called for the end to subsidies for renewable energy sources.

“The fact that wind keeps coming up short at critical times is not something that should be ignored,” he said. “The best path forward for Texans is to eliminate subsidies for wind – and solar – like Chapters 312 and 313 property tax abatements and to make renewable generators pay for the costs they impose on the grid on days – like today – when they don’t show up.”

Charles McConnell, the executive director of the Center for Carbon Management in Energy and Sustainability at the University of Houston, told the Houston Republic that Chapter 313 subsidies are one of several tools that Texas uses to “encourage the investments and the deployment of renewables — both wind and solar.” He pointed out that the way renewables often operate means that they would not be profitable without government subsidies and other handouts. Texas’ reserve margin has dramatically decreased as a result of subsidizing renewable energy projects, he said.

Austin News recently reported that state Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian said reliability problems don’t necessarily derive from renewable energy, but that “it has displaced reliable generation because they have been prioritized and subsidized by our tax dollars.”

Research from theEnergy Alliance showed that from 2006 to 2019 wind and solar power generators received federal, state, and local subsidies from Texas taxpayers and consumers totaling $19.4 billion.

A set of reforming bills was proposed at the end of March by legislators in an effort to improve the state’s electric grid system. These included measures addressing wind and solar subsidies, the costs unreliable generators impose on the grid, as well as additional measures to prepare for extreme summer and winter weather conditions.

This article was originally published in the Austin News.